| 2026 NFL Team Futures | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win Totals, Division, Conference, and Super Bowl Probabilities Plus Market Implied Team Ratings | |||||||||||||
|
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| Wins1 | Win DIV2 |
Win Conf2 |
Win SB2 |
PAA3 | SOS4 | Wins1 | Win DIV2 |
Win Conf2 |
Win SB2 |
PAA3 | SOS4 | ||
| E A S T | |||||||||||||
 |
10.7 | 55% | 15% | 8% | 4.1 | +0.232 |  |
10.2 | 42% | 9% | 5% | 2.6 | −0.230 |
 |
10.0 | 40% | 9% | 4% | 2.3 | −0.083 |  |
9.5 | 32% | 6% | 3% | 1.3 | +0.486 |
 |
5.5 | 3% | <1% | <1% | −5.2 | −0.258 |  |
7.3 | 13% | 3% | 1% | −1.0 | +0.328 |
 |
3.8 | 2% | <1% | <1% | −6.0 | +0.978 |  |
7.4 | 13% | 2% | 1% | −2.0 | +0.106 |
| N O R T H | |||||||||||||
 |
11.0 | 49% | 15% | 7% | 3.5 | −0.659 |  |
10.7 | 35% | 8% | 4% | 2.5 | −1.122 |
 |
10.3 | 34% | 8% | 4% | 1.9 | −1.186 |  |
9.7 | 27% | 8% | 4% | 2.5 | +0.044 |
 |
8.3 | 14% | 3% | 1% | −0.9 | −0.231 |  |
9.3 | 22% | 6% | 3% | 1.6 | +0.060 |
 |
5.6 | 4% | <1% | <1% | −5.1 | −0.700 |  |
8.7 | 15% | 3% | 1% | −0.6 | −0.186 |
| S O U T H | |||||||||||||
 |
9.9 | 45% | 9% | 4% | 1.9 | +0.054 |  |
8.2 | 35% | 4% | 1% | −0.2 | −0.211 |
 |
8.9 | 27% | 6% | 3% | 0.7 | +0.189 |  |
7.6 | 26% | 2% | <1% | −2.9 | −1.141 |
 |
8.0 | 18% | 3% | 1% | −1.0 | −0.365 |  |
7.0 | 21% | 2% | <1% | −2.7 | −0.003 |
 |
6.2 | 10% | 1% | <1% | −3.9 | −0.120 |  |
6.9 | 19% | 2% | <1% | −2.8 | −0.095 |
| W E S T | |||||||||||||
 |
10.2 | 34% | 10% | 5% | 2.9 | +0.033 |  |
11.8 | 49% | 23% | 15% | 5.7 | +0.593 |
 |
9.8 | 32% | 10% | 5% | 2.7 | +0.481 |  |
10.6 | 29% | 13% | 7% | 4.2 | +0.364 |
 |
9.7 | 30% | 8% | 4% | 1.6 | +0.130 |  |
9.9 | 22% | 8% | 4% | 2.7 | −0.086 |
 |
5.8 | 4% | 1% | <1% | −4.5 | +0.315 |  |
3.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% | −6.8 | +1.255 |
| 1 The implied true wins considering the over and under odds. | |||||||||||||
| 2 Implied probability without vig. | |||||||||||||
| 3 Points Above Average The number of points the team would be favored against a league average opponent on a neutral field. Home field advantage is estimated at 1.8 points. |
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| 4 Strength of Schedule by average opponent PAA (see 3) including home field advantage. Purple colors = harder schedule. Green colors = easier schedule. |
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| Data: DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, and CircaSports via @RotoWireNFL Table: mrcaseb.com | Wed, Sep 9, 2026 | 08:50 AM EDT |
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2026 NFL Team Futures
How Betting Markets View your Team’s Chances in the 2026 Regular Season
The 2026 NFL regular season is about to kick off. So we have reached the peak of knowledge about the status of the teams during the offseason.
At this point every year, I look at how the betting markets estimate the probabilities of winning the division, conference, and Super Bowl, as well as the strength of the teams relative to the rest of the league. We can do the latter because the betting markets are still offering spread lines for all regular season games for a short period of time. We can use these lines to determine the market-implied team strengths of all teams, as well as the estimated value of home field advantage1.
Let’s take a look at the table and then go into some of the details. The data presented is the average of several sportsbooks2 whose data is compiled by Rotowire.
The WINS are a “true” win total, which takes into account the over and under odds.
The WIN DIV, WIN CONF, and WIN SB columns are the implied probabilities of the betting odds with the vig removed (the respective markets therefore add up to 100).
PAA3 is the above-described estimate of team strength relative to the rest of the league. It reflects the number of points the team would be favored against a league average opponent on a neutral field (where home field advantage wouldn’t apply). Values greater than 0 represent a team that is stronger than the NFL average.
The SOS column represents strength of schedule. This refers to the average strength of opponents (measured in PAA), taking into account home advantage, i.e. it makes a difference whether a team plays at home or away against particularly strong opponents. Values greater than 0 mean that teams must play a schedule in which their opponents are, on average, better than the league average.